Betting on a big bang

Forecasting volcanic eruptions is always something of a gamble. However, if you fancy your chances of predicting where the next big volcanic eruption is likely to be and are willing to back your hunches, Irish bookmakers Paddy Power will happily relieve you of your cash.

Paddy Power have begun taking bets on the next volcano to produced a VEI=3 or greater eruption. At the moment Mount Unzen in Japan, which as far as we know has never produced anything bigger than VEI=2, is leading the field at 3/1. The offering of Mauna Loa at 9/1 suggests even more strongly that form has not been studied with sufficient care. Among the more sensible contenders are Merapi (10/1), Avachinsky (22/1) and Vesuvius (28/1). Yellowstone has just made it into the top twenty at 33/1, a state of affairs for which the supervolcano obsessives at the Discovery Channel are surely responsible. If you bet on Yellowstone and it does erupt, good luck collecting your winnings.

This may or may not all be in rather bad taste, and it’s a lousy way to try to make some money (unless you are Paddy Power, of course). On the other hand, it may increase the number of people around the world watching volcanoes with close, if mercenary, interest.

If you fancy a flutter, or are just interested to see how punters view the current state of the world’s volcanoes (‘Casade Range’ at 16/1, anybody?), the latest odds can be found at oddschecker.com.

More reaction: nice write-up (and comments) at Erik’s Eruptions blog, and a fairly dumb article at Popular Science.