Mayon update, 22 December 2009 22 December 2009

The latest Mayon bulletin, no. 9, reports little change in the volcano’s behaviour over the previous 24 hours:

Seismic activity remained elevated in number and size as the seismic network detected a total of 1,266 volcanic earthquakes. Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection and have continuously occurred since 12:21 PM, 20 December 2009. Harmonic tremors were still continuously being recorded.

Sulphur dioxide emission remained high at 6,529 tonnes/day. An intensified crater glow was observed during a break in the cloud cover, and booming and rumbling noises continued to be audible. Lava continued to flow downslope to a distance of about 5 km from the crater.

The Manila Bulletin is reporting that an increase in alert level at Mayon from 4 to 5 is ‘imminent’. Level 5, the highest level, indicates that a hazardous eruption is ongoing, and presently, for all the disruption, that is not the case. There would have to be a marked upswing in activity from Mayon before level 5 would be justified – which is precisely what the Phivolcs official quoted in the story says. Meanwhile, Phivolcs has warned people to the south of the volcano to stay clear of potential lahar channels.

Fears of infectious disease among the c. 47,000 evacuees crowded into shelters have led to the deployment of extra medical teams by the Philippines Department of Health. The psychological health of the thousands of people now facing a Christmas away from their homes and in the shelters is also being considered: soldiers in Santa hats have been distributing presents to children, and an appeal has gone out for ‘clowns and actors’ to provide entertainment and lift the evacuees’ spirits. Those who have ignored the evacuation order receive no such consideration: the authorities are considering making anyone who insists on staying within the danger zone sign a waiver to the effect that anything that happens to them when the volcano erupts is their own responsibility.

For all our Mayon coverage: Mayon « The Volcanism Blog.

News
Alert level 5 for Mayon imminent – Manila Bulletin, 22 December 2009
Residents told: avoid lahar-prone areas near Mayon – Philippine Daily Inquirer, 22 December 2009
Most of 47,000 Filipinos safe from raging volcano – Associated Press, 22 December 2009
DOH deploys more medical teams to Albay – ABS-CBN News, 22 December 2009
Clowns, actors needed in Albay evacuation centers – GMANews.TV, 22 December 2009
Albay residents who refuse to leave may need to sign waiver – GMANews.TV, 22 December 2009

Information
Global Volcanism Program: Mayon – summary information for Mayon (0703-03=)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology – website for Phivolcs

Mayon update, 21 December 2009 21 December 2009

Activity at Mayon has continued to intensify, with a dramatic upswing in seismicity over the past 24 hours, reports Phivolcs in Mayon Bulletin no. 8:

Seismic activity dramatically increased in number and size. A total of 1,942 volcanic earthquakes was detected by the seismic network. Many of these volcanic earthquakes were recorded at maximum deflection and continually occurred beginning at 1221H yesterday. Harmonic tremors were also continuously recorded.

Sulphur dioxide emissions have remained at a high level of 6,089 tonnes/day. Booming and rumbling sounds have been heard, intensified crater glow and continuous ejection of incandescent material has been visible overnight, and the advancing lava front has reached 5 km downslope of the crater. Strombolian activity has also been observed, with lava fountains reaching about 200 m above the crater.

The evacuation of at-risk populations near the volcano is into its final stages, with the authorities taking steps to remove local inhabitants who have so far refused to leave their homes and farms. The lessons of previous eruptions, particularly regarding the potential reach of pyroclastic flows and lahars, have not been lost on the Philippines authorities: ‘The probability of survival in an eruption is zero if you’re in the danger area’, Albay Governor Salceda has said, ‘The solution is obviously distance’. Phivolcs has reassured people that Mayon, with its less volatile lavas, is ‘safer’ than Pinatubo: ‘Mayon’s possible eruption would not be in the scale and intensity of Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991, considered the second largest eruption of the 20th century worldwide, although Mayon’s current activity is more energetic than when it erupted in 2006’.

Many local people have been reluctant to leave their homes and properties, with farmers proving particularly good at evading the checkpoints and returning home to check on animals and crops. The government have reassured farmers that livestock will also be evacuated to state agricultural stations where veterinary care will be available; meanwhile, the health of human evacuees, threatened by overcrowding and lack of safe drinking water, is also a concern. The authorities have made it clear that they will do everything short of using physical force to get people away from the danger zone: soldiers will be sent in to ‘nag them non-stop’ according to one disaster management official, and the deployment of clowns is being seriously considered.

For all our Mayon coverage: Mayon « The Volcanism Blog.

News
Thousands warned to flee Philippine volcano zone – AFP, 21 December 2009
Mayon ‘safer’ than Pinatubo – Manila Bulletin, 21 December 2009
Albay evacuees assured of safe drinking water – GMANews.TV, 21 December 2009
Philippine volcano gets louder, could blow up soon – Associated Press, 21 December 2009
Clowns to lure people from Mayon danger zone – Philippine Daily Inquirer, 21 December 2009

Information
Global Volcanism Program: Mayon – summary information for Mayon (0703-03=)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology – website for Phivolcs

Mayon update, 20 December 2009: alert level raised to 4 20 December 2009

The alert level for Mayon volcano was raised on 20 December by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) to level 4, ‘hazardous eruption imminent’. Mayon Bulletin no. 7 explains:

This is to notify the public that PHIVOLCS-DOST is now raising the alert status of Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E) from ALERT LEVEL 3 to ALERT LEVEL 4. This means that a hazardous explosive eruption is possible within days, thus, areas expected to be affected by such eruption will be accordingly extended.

To ensure the safety of the public, PHIVOLCS-DOST is recommending an extended danger zone from the summit of 8 km at the southern sector and 7 km at northern sector.

Areas just outside of this Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) should prepare for evacuation in the event explosive eruptions intensify.

The previous bulletin, Mayon Bulletin no. 6, issued earlier on 20 December, reported 222 volcanic quakes and tremors over the preceding 24 hours, one of which was an explosive event that produced a 500 metre altitude grey ash column. Harmonic tremor was continually recorded. Steam plumes varied from dirty white to light brown in colour. Intensified crater glow and the continuous rolling down the slopes of incandescent material was visible at night. Lava had advanced 4.5 km downslope from the crater. Sulphur dioxide emissions were measured at 7,024 tonnes/day, a marked increase on the 2,034 tonnes/day reported in Mayon Bulletin no. 5 on 19 December.

The head of the Phivolcs volcano monitoring team has told the press that the alert level was raised on the afternoon of 20 December ‘because there was a sudden acceleration in the activity of the volcano’:

He said the number of volcanic quakes from 6:00 am Sunday (2200 GMT Saturday) increased to 463 and that the volcano was belching more sulphur dioxide into the air.

This was a sign that ‘a hazardous eruption is possible within days.’

However he would not give an estimate of when the eruption could take place.

Meanwhile, weather forecasters report that a storm is threatening the southern Philippines with heavy rains, increasing the lahar risk at Mayon. Destructive and deadly lahars have been a feature of Mayon’s history: most recently, a typhoon in November 2007 turned deposits left by the eruption of July to October 2006 into disastrous mudflows, killing and injuring thousands. It is grim experiences like this that lie behind the urgency of the current evacuation effort around Mayon.

UPDATE: A new report in the Inquirer gives Phivolcs figures of 463 earthquakes registered at Mayon between 08:00 and 14:00 on 20 December.

For all our Mayon coverage: Mayon « The Volcanism Blog.

News
Philippine volcano alert raised, eruption in days – govt – Philippine Daily Inquirer, 20 December 2009
Eruption within days – Manila Bulletin, 20 December 2009
Mayon alert level raised to 4; eruption seen within days – GMANews.TV, 20 December 2009
Major volcanic eruption feared in Philippines – Associated Press, 20 December 2009
Alert level 4 raised as volcano seen to erupt in days – Philippine Daily Inquirer, 20 December 2009

Information
Global Volcanism Program: Mayon – summary information for Mayon (0703-03=)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology – website for Phivolcs

Mayon update, 18 December 2009: activity intensifies 18 December 2009

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) issued bulletin no. 4 on the eruption of Mayon at 07:00 today.

Over the previous 24 hours the bulletin reports an increase in Mayon’s activity, with 248 earthquakes and tremors recorded by the seismic network, 50 of which ‘were of the explosion type’. Harmonic tremors were continually recorded. Explosions produced ash plumes to 1000 metres above the summit, and the plume drifted south-west. Continuous steaming produced ‘dirty white to light brown’ plumes, and an intensified crater glow was visible at night. Lava has reached approximately 3 km downslope from the crater, while incandescent blocks have descended to between 3 and 4 km downslope. Sulphur dioxide emission was high at 1,065 tonnes/day. The alert level remains at 3, and Phivolcs warns that ‘Since an increasing trend is noticeable at present, the possibility of hazardous volcanic eruption is high’.

Figures for the ongoing evacuation are somewhat confused, but the Press Association reports today that more than 35,000 people have been evacuated from around Mayon, with around 10,000 more still to go. ABS-CBN News reports that ‘The Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council is expecting to evacuate all 9,946 families from the danger zones on Friday’. There is still reluctance to evacuate in some areas, and people have been re-entering the danger zone, despite the best efforts of the authorities. Farmers have been going back to tend their crops and animals.

This, from the Philippine Daily Inquirer, is a bit bizarre:

Asked about the relationship of the coming full moon with the impending explosive eruption, Baloloy [Alex Baloloy of Phivolcs] said that in the history of Mayon, it really does not follow a real pattern but several explosive eruptions have happened during or before the full moon.

For all our Mayon coverage: Mayon « The Volcanism Blog.

News
Mayon activities intensify – Manila Bulletin, 18 December 2009
Scientists mull raising Mayon alert to level 4 – Philippine Daily Inquirer, 18 December 2009
‘Hazardous’ Mayon Volcano eruption likely: Phivolcs – ABS-CBN News, 18 December 2009
Major eruption of Philippine volcano imminent – Bloomberg, 18 December 2009
Farmers return to erupting Philippine volcano: govt – AFP, 18 December 2009
Residents moved from volcano threat – Press Association, 18 December 2009

Information
Global Volcanism Program: Mayon – summary information for Mayon (0703-03=)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology – website for Phivolcs, when it’s working

Mayon update, 17 December 2009 17 December 2009

Nice to see that the Phivolcs website is actually working now. Yesterday’s Mayon bulletin can be found here.

Phivolcs is reported to be considering raising the alert level for Mayon from 3 to 4, ‘hazardous eruption imminent’. Governor Salceda of Albay has said that the situation ‘is now almost alert level 4’, and Albay has declared a ‘state of calamity’ which will enable it to anticipate a raised alert level and increase the resources available to deal with the Mayon emergency. An overflight is planned to allow for an inspection of the two active lava domes within the summit crater. Judging from the quantity of incandescent material falling from the domes and rolling down the slopes of the volcano, the domes are growing rapidly, indicative of substantial magma pressure from below. Phivolcs head Renato Solidum is quoted by the Philippine Information Agency as warning that ‘unlike in the 2001 and 2006 eruptions, Mayon took weeks to months for lava domes to develop, but this time these domes are becoming bigger and bigger everyday’.

More than 30,000 people have so far been evacuated from the danger zone around Mayon: the evacuations will affect a total of around 50,000, and if the eruption intensifies as many as 120,000 local residents will have to be evacuated. The police and the military have been instructed to ensure that everyone within the danger area evacuates, whether they want to go or not. Meanwhile tourists are descending upon the area, cameras in hand.

Additional coverage: ‘Major eruption for Mayon likely’ (Manila Times), ‘Mayon evacuation almost complete’ (Malaya), ‘Curfew to be enforced in Mayon danger zone’ (Philippine Star).

For all our Mayon coverage: Mayon « The Volcanism Blog.

News
Phivolcs warns Mayon volcano crisis may last for months, considers raising alert level to 4 – AHN, 17 December 2009
Albay declares state of calamity – Philippines Daily Inquirer, 17 December 2009
Mayon volcano eruption: Philippines to raise alert level to 4 soon – Brunei fm, 17 December 2009
Forced evacuations around Philippine volcano – Associated Press, 17 December 2009
Gov’t bans human activity around Mayon PDZ; NDCC assures aid to Albay – Philippine Information Agency, 17 December 2009
Restive Mayon a tourist draw – Manila Bulletin, 17 December 2009
Philippine volcano Mount Mayon ‘still a danger’ – BBC News, 17 December 2009

Information
Global Volcanism Program: Mayon – summary information for Mayon (0703-03=)
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology – website for Phivolcs, when it’s working